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Por: Jorge Vergara Carbó –Colaborador- Debo empezar por decir que Colombia es un país único, los políticos en su campaña para elegirse prometen el cielo y la tierra, y después cuando ejercen el poder hacen todo lo contrario a lo que prometieron, e incluso actúan en forma diferente desafiando los principales principios económicos y sociales. Lo que ha hecho, el gobierno de Iván Duque no tiene antecedentes en el país.

El presidente de los colombianos solicitando un milagrito económico

Presentar una reforma tributaria que no resuelve los problemas estructurales del país, en recesión económica producto en parte por la pandemia, ya que la otra parte se debe a los malos manejos que se han dado en la fijación de políticas económicas adecuadas y por una mala inversión de los pocos recursos que se recaudan por el pago de impuestos. En las tres crónicas anteriores expusimos los puntos fundamentales  de la tan cacareada reforma tributaria de “Duque”, así como lo que pensamos se debe proceder para que el país tenga niveles de recaudo tributario cercanos a la OCDE 33% del PIB, y no el 14.8%, que recaudamos en promedio en el país en los últimos seis años. Para tener una visión más clara del recaudo tributario del país, relacionamos en el siguiente cuadro el recaudo del 2015 al 2020, y el valor del PIB de esos años en billones de pesos.

            AÑO                        PIB          RECAUDO          PORCENTAJE
            2015                         834              123.7                 14.8
            2016                         880         126.7                 14.4
            2017                        988               136.4                 13.8
            2018                         976               144.4            14.6
            2019                        1.061             157.3             14.8
            2020                        989*                146.2              14.8
*estimado
El comportamiento de los recaudos en los últimos años en Colombia

Desde un principio  el gobierno utilizo los medios de comunicación  y algunos foros organizados por centros académicos para ir soltando puntos del proyecto de ley,  para evaluar como caían en los distintos sectores de la sociedad colombiana. No tuvieron la delicadeza de dar a conocer el estudio y recomendaciones de los expertos contratados, para poder contar con una mayor ilustración  y enriquecer el debate. Solo el equipo económico del gobierno conoce el documento.

Las miradas escépticas de los partidos

No creo que los parlamentarios hayan tenido acceso a ese trabajo, porque de ser así, ya lo hubieran dado a conocer.  Pero les salió el tiro por la culata, porque la información que recibíamos no era clara y por supuesto trajo consigo una mayor incertidumbre. El gobierno jugo con ello, y solo a los 15 días, de discutirse algunos temas en los medios, decidió presentar el proyecto de ley al Congreso, entrando por la Cámara de Representantes para estudio de las Comisiones Cuarta y Quinta de Cámara y Senado, que ya cuenta con sus respectivos ponentes. Pero su reforma no tuvo eco, antes y después  de presentarla recibió el rechazo de las centrales obreras, sindicatos, sociedad civil, gremios, y  por supuesto de los partidos políticos  Polo Democrático, la UP, la Colombia Humana, Dignidad por Colombia, el partido verde, Cambio Radical, la U y el partido Liberal. Por considerarla inoportuna por estar en una recesión económica de la cual no hemos podido salir por la pandemia y las decisiones erradas en las  distintas políticas públicas, y también porque afecta a las clases medias duramente golpeadas por el desempleo y a las clases populares que viven de la informalidad, y por supuesto por frenar la reactivación económica que tanto necesitamos.

Las marchas siguen a la orden del día en cada reforma económica

Para reafirmar el rechazo al proyecto de ley las centrales obreras y otras organizaciones cívicas convocaron a un paro nacional para el 28 de abril, el cual se realizó con un gran civismo tanto en las calles como en sus casas protestando de distintas maneras. No podemos negar que se presentaron hechos de vandalismo, que rechazamos, los cuales deben ser judicializados. Gracias al rechazo que se le ha dado al proyecto  y a la convocatoria de un paro nacional para el 28 de abril, el gobierno que se mostraba reacio a retirarlo aceptó a regañadientes eliminar algunos puntos considerados críticos por la comunidad. Con base a ello soltó un caramelo para suavizar el debate  retirando el IVA  del 19%, a los servicios públicos domiciliarios, el impuesto a la gasolina, y a la cadena de productos básicos que  pasaron de exentos a excluidos, y ofrecer un dialogo constructivo para revisar otros puntos controversiales.

Los dueños de las tristezas en tiempos de reformas

Esa sola actitud sin un primer debate de la reforma, demuestra la falta de seriedad de un gobierno que claudica antes de dar la pelea y además de haber hecho lo contrario de lo que le recomendaron los expertos en la materia que el mismo gobierno contrato y que no sabemos a qué costo. Pero igual situación se da en el Congreso los jefes de los partidos políticos, que no hacen parte del cuerpo colegiado  rechazan totalmente la reforma, e incluso el partido liberar en cabeza de César Gaviria amenaza con expulsar y sancionar al liberal que vote el proyecto, y algo parecido dijo Germán Vargas a su partido compartido Cambio Radical, digo compartido porque la familia Char de Barranquilla tiene una alta incidencia en ese partido, y el partido de la U, de Dilian Francisco Toro, quién tiene aspiraciones presidenciales. Algo similar fue lo que Cambio Radical y el partido Liberal  expresaron contra el Plan de Desarrollo 2018-2022, pidieron  votarlo negativamente. Pero el gobierno necesitaba tres (3) votos para completar el quórum reglamentario para que pasara la Ley del Plan de desarrollo.

Centro de acopio de la mermelada

Germán Vargas Lleras para el día de la votación convocó a su partido a un encuentro en la ciudad de Valledupar, para evitar supuestamente la tentación de la mermelada a su bancada. Lo que no contaba el señor Germán Vargas, que el gobierno tenía una carta importante que se la jugó contactando al jefe del Clan Char, para que convenciera a dos de sus parlamentarios para que no fueran a Valledupar y se dirigieran a Bogotá, para votar el proyecto. Así lo hicieron pero no se fueron solo Arturo Char y Luís Eduardo Diazgranados, sino por los nexos con el charismo y la mermelada del gobierno convencieron a  Mauricio Gómez, el niño consentido de Gaviria, para que los acompaña en esa odisea que los iba a beneficiar con cargos públicos y contratos. Se fueron no sé si en el avión de la familia Char o en uno de Avianca, y cuando llegaron al Congreso fueron recibidos con bombos y platillos por los parlamentarios del partido de la U, partido Conservador Centro democrático.   Por esos tres parlamentarios se perdió un hecho  histórico, el cual consistía en el primer gobierno colombiano que no le aprobaba su plan de desarrollo, y para ponerlo en práctica tenía que aprobarlo por Decreto. Un golpe político. Lo triste para los caribeños, y en especial para los atlanticenses, es que esos tres parlamentarios son de nuestro terruño. Esto fue tan escandaloso que la revista Semana titulo la noticia así:

La mermelada se cosecha en las votaciones en cada elección

“El voto que partió en dos a Cambio Radical” (26 de marzo de 2019), su titular ha debido ser “La mermelada del uribismo hace milagros”. Pero miren esta perla, el proyecto de Renta Básica fue hundido por los  parlamentarios atlanticenses, Luís Eduardo Diazgranados, Mauricio Gómez, Efraín Cepeda y otros caribeños como María del Socorro Guerra y Barguil, dejaron a los pobres sin esa ayuda que era necesaria para la economía del país, producto de la mermelada ofrecida por el gobierno que se oponía a esa iniciativa. Que diferencia puede haber en el comportamiento de los parlamentarios y su obediencia a los jefes del partido, con relación a la reforma tributaria. ¿Creen ustedes que ahora si harán casos y hundirán la reforma en las comisiones tercera y cuarta del Congreso? Si creen es porque son unos ilusos.

Una mirada a la desigualdad de Colombia

En plena campaña que se avecina, con una situación económica difícil, se negaran esos angelitos a recibir mermelada hundiendo el proyecto de ley de reforma tributaria. No lo ceo, la tentación es grande, el gobierno sabe que la mermelada no empalaga y mueve cielo y tierra, tanto es así, que en el mismo proyecto le tiran mermelada a alcaldes y  gobernadores, ofreciéndoles $5.1 billones adicionales a lo que reciben por el Sistema General de participación (SGP).Semejante tentación nueve conciencias. No nos dejemos engañar, la mermelada abre puertas y conciencias, lo acontecido con el reciente  fallo de la Magistrada “Nelly Villamizar” del Tribunal Administrativo de Cundinamarca, que en una sentencia histórica fallo una Tutela prohibiendo la movilización programada para el día 28 de abril, por parte de las centrales obreras y otras organizaciones sociales y políticas , me perdona pero no es gratuita, el gobierno tuvo que meter las manos hasta el fondo así lo niegue, porque es un fallo que no tienen antecedentes en el país, y que además deja mal librado a la justicia colombiana, que de por sí, no es que sea la mejor. El Espectador título su editorial del  29 de abril, así: “Una decisión por completo arbitraria”  y por supuesto amañada que apunta a favorecer al gobierno de Duque, prohibiendo lo que establece la Constitución de libertad de movilidad. Lo peor del fallo, es que asume hechos o peticiones que los peticionarios nunca hicieron y además es un proceso culminado y fallado.

Los Paro Cívicos en Colombia son la medida del inconformismo social

Si se atrevieron a tocar la justicia, para lograr sus fines, lo seguro es que presionaran a ciertos grupos económicos,  Instituciones académicas, expertos en el tema y por supuesto a los parlamentarios de quitarles la mermelada si no apoyan el proyecto de ley-.  Como decía Santo Tomás  “ver para creer”. No se ha empezado a discutir el proyecto en las comisiones económicas y he escuchado y leído posiciones de parlamentarios de los partidos políticos que pidieron el retiro de la reforma, de entablar un dialogo como lo está planteando el gobierno. Eso significa en carta blanca mermelada, van a negociar póngale la firma. Igualmente  muchos medios de comunicación  con entrevista a expertos o columnistas o editoriales, con contadas excepciones se han puesto al servicio del gobierno para vendernos la idea de que lo que se debe hacer es vender los activos del gobierno principalmente el 10%, de Ecopetrol y la participación de ISA, no a Ecopetrol sino a particulares, porque dicen que eso es pasar la plata de un bolsillo a otro, y en eso tienen razón. Estos personajes que son los que han ocupado altos cargos en casi toda su vida en los distintos gobiernos son para que los conozcan : Santiago Pardo-Juan Carlos Echeverri-Diego Otero –Mauricio Cárdenas-El gerente actual del Banco de la República , entre otros que están vendiendo la idea, de que lo mejor en estos momentos para el gobierno es vender las acciones de Isa, y el 10%, de las acciones de Ecopetrol como los otros activos improductivos que tiene, incluyendo los que administra la Sociedad de Activos especiales(SAE), que le podían generar recursos cercanos a $20 billones o más.

Cada norma sobre la economía se volvió un papayaso en el país político

En el fondo, esa propuesta es el papayaso que estaba esperando Alberto  Carrasquilla para feriar esos activos, tal como lo hicieron con los de Electricaribe. Ese es el negocio socio, que se esconde de tras de la propuesta de una reforma tributaria que el mismo carrasquilla sabe, que no iba a caer bien, y que además tiene un costo político alto para el gobierno en estos momentos de pandemia. No nos olvidemos de  los “Bonos Agua” que se negociaron gracias a que el MHCP recién salido carrasquilla del Ministerio, una Resolución que violaba la ley 819 de 2003, autorizando a las entidades territoriales para que comprometieran vigencias futuras excepcionales para el programa  de agua, que monto el mismo Carrasquilla  con sus funcionarios, negocio en el cual se enriqueció a costa de los municipios pobres que a la fecha algunos no han terminado de pagar su deuda. Ese hecho lo denunciamos ante la PGN y FGN, sin resultado alguno, a pesar de que el MHCP  se convirtió en legislador al modificar mediante una Resolución o un Decreto la Ley 819/03, que para ese entonces no le permitía a las entidades territoriales comprometer vigencias futuras excepcionales, el único que lo podía hacer era el gobierno nacional.  “A otro perro con ese hueso” lo que le interesa a Carrasquilla, y a Duque,  es luz blanca para feriar los activos del país, sin ningún tipo de discusión, y control porque lo más seguro es que se hará bajo el principio de “confidencialidad”  utilizado para la venta de Electricaribe, que aún no hemos podido saber en cuanto se vendió, después de haber invertido alrededor de $5.2 billones. Al gobierno no le interesa resolver los problemas sociales, hoy tenemos niveles de pobreza del 42.5%, y de pobreza extrema 15.1%, cuando el año anterior estábamos en el 35.7% y la extrema en 9.6%.

Las moneditas que se suman a la pobreza extrema

Según el  Dane, la población de Colombia en el año2020, es de 50.3 millones de habitantes, lo que significa que hay actualmente 21.3 millones de personas viviendo en la pobreza, unos seis (6) millones de familias, que el gobierno espera resolverles su situación con una reforma tributaria que de su recaudo esperado solo le dedica el 29.8%, mientras a cubrir el hueco fiscal el  63.1%, especialmente para cumplir con el pago de la deuda, tal como lo hace en el PGN. Los $7.5 billones, que supuestamente destinara a las familias vulnerables no representan ni el uno por ciento del PIB, del  2020($989bil). Insisten en negar la Renta Básica concepto que cambiaron por ingreso solidario que solo entregaría a unas familias $80.000 mensual y a otras $360.000, Ahora el gobierno aspira a recaudar $23.4 billones, un 2.4% del PIB del 2020, para tener un recaudo total en el 2022, del 17.2%, porcentaje muy lejos de lo que recaudan los países de la OCDE. En cambio  si propusiera eliminar las exenciones de las Zonas Francas, de los  sectores financiero, petrolero, minero y los privilegios que entregamos en los años 2018 y 2019 a las empresas, y además modificara su Código penal, imponiendo una pena entre 5 y 10 años, para los:  corruptos, evasores-elusión de impuestos, contrabandistas, lavadores de dinero y los capitales que no se hayan declarado en el país(fuga de capitales), que de acuerdo al banco Mundial, la DIAN y Fedesarrollo a los  180 billones, un 18.2%, del PIB, que sumado al recaudo histórico del 14.8%, podríamos tener un recaudo del 33%, del PIB. Recursos suficientes  para cambiarle la cara al país, disminuir los niveles de pobreza, construir la infraestructura adecuada, bajar los impuestos a las empresas, no gravar la riqueza e incentivar a los inversionistas nacionales y extranjeros para que inviertan en empresas estratégicas orientadas a exportar  y en especial explotar  el campo con inversiones de capital , tecnología e investigación. No podemos pensar en monocultivos, tenemos que pensar en producir alimentos  para el mundo, e importar solo los productos  que no podemos producir en el país.

Las cuentas de la DIAN, nunca cuadran con la realidad

Tenemos que  cambiar el modelo económico  basado en la exportación de commodites, por uno que genere valor agregado y empleo en el país.  “Soñar no cuesta nada” sabemos que la evasión-elusión y la corrupción existen en todo el mundo, pero también sabemos que no es imposible disminuirlas. Señores de la DIAN, FGN, PGN y CGN, el control cuesta, por ello deben centrar todo su experticia en los grandes evasores, y en los contratos de alto valor, como en la decisiones de las juntas directivas de las empresas comerciales del Estado, ministerios y junta directiva del Banco de la República, no se les olvide que quienes más daño le hacen al país son los corruptos de cuello blanco. El país necesita de todos, para salir adelante. Fotos de Internet. Barranquilla, abril 29 de 2021.

*LOS COMENTARIOS Y POSICIÓN DEL COLABORADOR, NO REFLEJA EL PENSAMIENTO EDITORIAL DE ESTA PUBLICACIÓN*

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Fabio Ortiz

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